ML APPLICATIONS

Neural Relational Autoregression for High-Resolution COVID-19 Forecasting

October 1, 2020

Abstract

Forecasting COVID-19 poses unique challenges due to the novelty of the disease, its unknown characteristics, and substantial but varying interventions to reduce its spread. To improve the quality and robustness of forecasts, we propose a new method which aims to disentangle region-specific factors -- such as demographics, enacted policies, and mobility -- from disease-inherent factors that influence its spread. For this purpose, we combine recurrent neural networks with a vector autoregressive model and train the joint model with a specific regularization scheme that increases the coupling between regions. This approach is akin to using Granger causality as a relational inductive bias and allows us to train high-resolution models by borrowing statistical strength across regions. In our experiments, we observe that our method achieves strong performance in predicting the spread of COVID-19 when compared to state-of-the-art forecasts.

Download the Paper

AUTHORS

Written by

Matthew Le

Mark Ibrahim

Levent Sagun

Timothee Lacroix

Maximilian Nickel

Publisher

Facebook AI

Related Publications

September 10, 2019

NLP

Bridging the Gap Between Relevance Matching and Semantic Matching for Short Text Similarity Modeling | Facebook AI Research

A core problem of information retrieval (IR) is relevance matching, which is to rank documents by relevance to a user’s query. On the other hand, many NLP problems, such as question answering and paraphrase identification, can be considered…

Jinfeng Rao, Linqing Liu, Yi Tay, Wei Yang, Peng Shi, Jimmy Lin

September 10, 2019

June 11, 2019

NLP

COMPUTER VISION

Adversarial Inference for Multi-Sentence Video Description | Facebook AI Research

While significant progress has been made in the image captioning task, video description is still in its infancy due to the complex nature of video data. Generating multi-sentence descriptions for long videos is even more challenging. Among the…

Jae Sung Park, Marcus Rohrbach, Trevor Darrell, Anna Rohrbach

June 11, 2019

May 17, 2019

NLP

Unsupervised Hyper-alignment for Multilingual Word Embeddings | Facebook AI Research

We consider the problem of aligning continuous word representations, learned in multiple languages, to a common space. It was recently shown that, in the case of two languages, it is possible to learn such a mapping without supervision. This…

Jean Alaux, Edouard Grave, Marco Cuturi, Armand Joulin

May 17, 2019

July 27, 2019

NLP

Unsupervised Question Answering by Cloze Translation | Facebook AI Research

Obtaining training data for Question Answering (QA) is time-consuming and resource-intensive, and existing QA datasets are only available for limited domains and languages. In this work, we explore to what extent high quality training data is…

Patrick Lewis, Ludovic Denoyer, Sebastian Riedel

July 27, 2019

Help Us Pioneer The Future of AI

We share our open source frameworks, tools, libraries, and models for everything from research exploration to large-scale production deployment.